Under this policy, new grid-connected solar projects will adopt market-based electricity pricing from June 1, potentially leading to a sudden drop in domestic module demand and lower prices in the second half of 2025.
The shift to sustainable energy has caused the solar power market to grow worldwide. According to SolarPower Europe, the worldwide solar market will double to 2.3 TW in 2025, compared to a global 1 TW capacity in 2022.
Meanwhile, first-quarter 2026 prices climbed 3.61% to $0.086/W, with higher price quotes ranging from $0.083 to $0.090/W. Market expectations on future module price trends remain divided. Some sources anticipate a continued price increase through the second half of 2025 into early 2026, driven by upstream supply cuts and weak module margins.
As a result, projects initially planned for the second half of 2025 are being frontloaded into Q2 2025, creating a perceived module shortage in China. This has limited export availability, providing support for DDP Europe prices.
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